App 06 · Live now · Stress on demand

Find out what 2008 does to you. Before it happens.

Scenario Testing takes your current open book (every position, every size) and replays it through curated historical crises. The 2008 financial crisis. The 2010 Flash Crash. The 2015 SNB shock. COVID March 2020. The 2022 yen intervention. You see the day-by-day P&L impact, the worst drawdown moment, the recovery (or not). Stop wondering. Start knowing.

11 historical crises
Custom shocks
Tick-level replay
Multi-position aware
SCENARIO TESTING · CURRENT BOOK COVID · MAR 9-23, 2020
Worst-day P&L
-$18,420
Mar 12 · -9.2%
Max drawdown
-$24,180
−12.1% of account
End-of-scenario
-$8,640
−4.3% after 14 days
PORTFOLIO P&L · COVID REPLAY14 DAYS
$0 MAX DD Mar 9 Mar 12 Mar 23
P&L BY POSITION · SCENARIO IMPACT
Long SPX500 (×2)2.0 lots−$12,840
Long BTC/USD0.5−$8,920
Long XAU/USD1.0+$2,180
Long EUR/USD1.5−$1,620
Short USD/JPY2.0+$11,560

Most traders survive normal markets. They don't survive their first crisis.

If you started trading any time after 2020, you haven't really seen markets break. Everything you've experienced is either calm, mildly volatile, or a single-direction trend. The day correlations go to one, liquidity vanishes, and your three "diversified" positions all gap together. That day is invisible in your live experience.

Risk management designed only against the markets you've seen isn't risk management. It's surviving on the assumption that the future looks like the recent past.

Scenario Testing solves this by giving you instant access to the moments markets broke. Historical crises, curated for tradability, replayed against your current book at the level of detail that matters. Not a vague "what if there's a crash." A specific, dated, dollar-quantified "this is what your current portfolio loses on the third day of the COVID crash, by position, by hour." Then you adjust before, not after.

Eleven crises. Each one a syllabus.

Every scenario is fully reconstructed with tick-level data where available, daily resolution elsewhere. Each comes with context: what happened, why it happened, which instruments moved most, and how long until recovery (if at all). You can run any scenario on your current book in 3 seconds.

2008 · 18 months

Global Financial Crisis

Sep '08 – Mar '09

Lehman Brothers fails. Credit markets freeze. Cross-asset correlations approach 1.0. Most "diversified" portfolios behave as one trade.

SPX peak-to-trough−57%
USD/JPY−27%
XAU/USD+25%
2010 · 36 minutes

The Flash Crash

May 6, 2010

Largest intraday move in S&P history (at the time). 9% drop and full recovery in 36 minutes. Test your liquidity assumptions.

SPX intraday−9.2%
Recovery time~25 min
Spread widening100×
2015 · 3 minutes

SNB EUR/CHF Shock

Jan 15, 2015

The Swiss National Bank abandons its EURCHF 1.20 floor with no warning. EURCHF moves 30% in minutes. Many brokers bankrupt overnight.

EUR/CHF−30%
Move duration3 min
LiquidityZero
2020 · 6 weeks

COVID-19 Collapse

Feb 19 – Mar 23, 2020

Fastest 30%+ S&P drop in history. Volatility regime shift in days. Oil futures go negative. Everything that "shouldn't correlate" correlated.

SPX peak-to-trough−34%
VIX peak82.7
USOIL−305%
2022 · 1 day

BOJ Yen Intervention

Sep 22, 2022

First Japan FX intervention since 1998. USDJPY drops 5.4 yen in hours. Carry trades unwind violently. Cross-yen pairs see record vol.

USD/JPY−3.7%
Move duration~30 min
JPY crosses−2 to −5%
2024 · 2 weeks

August Carry Unwind

Aug 5, 2024

Japanese rate hike triggers global carry-trade liquidation. Yen crosses gap 5–8%. SPX drops, BTC drops, gold drops. Every "safe haven" sells off together.

USD/JPY−5.4%
NKY225−12.4%
BTC−18%
+ 5 more scenarios
2011 European sovereign crisis (multi-month) · 2016 Brexit (overnight) · 2018 Cryptocurrency winter (12 months) · 2021 Archegos liquidation (single day, equity-specific) · 2023 SVB / regional banks (3 days). Plus custom scenarios. Define your own shock parameters via the scenario builder.

What you get.

Replay your live book

Take your current open positions exactly as they are. Apply any historical scenario. See the day-by-day, hour-by-hour P&L impact. No assumptions, just substitution.

Per-position breakdown

Total scenario P&L is decomposed by position. Find out which trade is doing most of the damage. Often the surprise: the "safe" hedge that wasn't.

Worst-moment finder

Across the scenario, when was the deepest drawdown? Down to the minute. See whether your account would have margin-called, whether stops would have been jumped, whether you'd have survived.

Custom scenarios

Define your own shock: "USD spikes 8%, gold drops 12%, BTC drops 30%, correlations all go to 0.9." Run it. See what you'd lose. Useful for what-if analyses no historical replay covers.

Compare scenarios

Side-by-side comparison: COVID vs. SNB vs. 2008. Same book, different crises. Discover which kind of break is the one to fear in your specific configuration.

Strategy Lab integration

at.backtest(..., scenarios=["covid_2020"]). Pre-deploy gate: any strategy with intolerable scenario losses is auto-flagged before going live.

Three steps. Three seconds.

01
Pick your book

Defaults to your current live positions. You can also load a hypothetical book, a saved configuration, or a strategy's typical book from Strategy Lab.

02
Pick your crisis

Choose from 11 curated historical events or define a custom shock. Adjust parameters: scale severity, change duration, modify correlation behavior. Defaults reflect history exactly.

03
Read the verdict

Day-by-day P&L curve, worst-moment metrics, per-position attribution, margin / stop-out analysis. Share the report. Adjust the book. Re-run.

Stress, everywhere it matters.

↔ Risk Exposure
Find the cluster, test the cluster

Risk Exposure flags concentration. Scenario Testing tells you what that concentration loses in 2008. They combine as the Risk Pack bundle.

See Risk Exposure →
↔ VaR Analysis
Statistical + historical risk

VaR gives you "the worst 1-in-20 day." Scenario Testing gives you "the worst 1-in-1000 day." Two different lenses on the same exposure.

See VaR Analysis →
↔ Strategy Lab
Crisis Replay in backtests

Strategy Lab's Scenario Lab uses this engine. Every strategy gets graded against historical crises before live deploy. Strategies that blow up in 2008 stay in research.

See Strategy Lab →

The most expensive trade is the one you'd lose. Find it now.

Scenario Testing pays for itself on the single trade you don't take because the scenario report told you what would happen if markets broke.

Scenario Testing

11 curated historical crises. Custom scenario builder. Tick-level replay where data exists. Per-position attribution. Worst-moment finder. Strategy Lab integration. The same engine the Crisis Replay system in Strategy Lab runs on.

7 days$12
30 days$49 / mo
365 days$449 / yrSave 24%
Bundle and save
Risk Pack
Risk Exposure + VaR Analysis + Scenario Testing.
$89 / month SAVE 24%
All-Access
Every Arizet app + Strategy Lab full tier.
$149 / month SAVE 41%
Start 14-day trial →

Common questions.

How accurate is the replay?+
For instruments and dates where we have tick data, very accurate. Your fills are simulated against the actual spread, slippage, and microstructure of the day. For older events or instruments without tick history, we use daily resolution with calibrated intraday spread models. Each scenario page shows the data quality available.
What about instruments that didn't exist in 2008?+
For instruments without history (BTC pre-2010, newer indices, etc.), we use proxy mapping. BTC during 2008 is simulated as a high-beta risk asset, weighted to behave like the worst-performing risk asset that did exist. Each proxy is documented; you can override it.
Can I save scenario results?+
Yes. Every scenario run is saved automatically with a timestamp, your book composition at that moment, and the result. Build a history of "what could have happened" to compare with what actually did.
Is this the same engine as Strategy Lab's Scenario Lab?+
Yes. Scenario Testing is the live-book version; Scenario Lab in Strategy Lab is the backtested-strategy version. Same data, same simulation engine, same crisis library. They share the underlying infrastructure.
Will more scenarios be added?+
Yes. We add one to two scenarios per quarter. Both new historical events as they happen and curated additions from older history (the 1998 LTCM crisis, the 1992 GBP crisis, etc. are on our list). All updates are free for active subscribers.

Find out what breaks before it breaks.

14 days free. No card. Full app from day one.

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Available on A-Trader desktop · web