Coming Q3 2026 · Pipeline app 12

The crowd is loud. Now you can read it.

Markets aren't moved by news. They're moved by what the crowd does with the news. Sentiment Compass aggregates retail positioning data, broker-side commitments, options skew, social-media tone, and news-flow sentiment into a single quantitative read on the collective psychology of every major instrument. When the crowd reaches an extreme. Every retail trader long EUR/USD, every Reddit thread bullish, every options dealer hedging the same way. You see it. And you can act on it.

5 sources aggregated
Real-time tracking
Divergence alerts
Contrarian signals
SENTIMENT COMPASS · LIVE EXTREME CROWD
AGGREGATE MARKET SENTIMENT · ALL SOURCES
FearBearishNeutralBullishEuphoria
Extreme Bullish 78 / 100
BY INSTRUMENT · RETAIL POSITIONINGLONG ━ SHORT
EUR/USD
82% long
GBP/USD
71% long
XAU/USD
88% long
USD/JPY
66% short
BTC/USD
74% long
SPX500
79% long
RECENT SHIFTS
2H AGO
XAU/USD retail positioning crossed 85% long. Historical contrarian threshold reached.
5H AGO
USD/JPY sentiment flipped bearish on social tone despite flat retail positioning. Divergence flagged.
14H AGO
BTC social euphoria hit 92nd percentile of last 12 months. Historical mean reversion within 5 days = 71%.
Crowd-extreme alert Three major instruments at sentiment thresholds historically associated with mean reversion within 5–10 sessions. Contrarian setups available, but timing the unwind is the hard part, not identifying the position.

"The crowd is wrong at extremes." Except nobody can see the extremes.

Every experienced trader has heard the line. Fade the crowd. Be greedy when others are fearful. Sell euphoria. The maxim is empirically true. At sentiment extremes, mean reversion meaningfully outperforms trend continuation. The problem isn't the maxim. The problem is that retail traders don't see crowd positioning. They see their chart, their broker's order book at best, and Twitter sentiment that's noisy and biased. The actual crowd lives in broker-side commitment reports, retail positioning feeds, options flow, and aggregated social tone. None of which is on a retail trading platform.

The crowd is wrong at extremes, and almost nobody has the data to see the extremes.

Institutional desks watch this constantly. CFTC Commitments of Traders, retail broker positioning aggregates, options dealer positioning, social sentiment indexes. These feed every macro trading desk on Wall Street. The retail trader gets a TradingView "long/short" widget if they're lucky. Sentiment Compass closes the gap. Five sources aggregated, normalized, time-series'd, and surfaced with historical thresholds, so when the crowd hits an extreme, you see it, with context, with confidence intervals, with the historical hit rate of fading or following.

Sentiment isn't one signal. It's the composite of five.

Each source captures a different facet of crowd psychology, and each is fallible on its own. Retail positioning is great for FX, weak for crypto. Social tone is loud during retail manias, silent during institutional rotations. Options skew reveals hedging demand but lags. The compass aggregates all five, so a single source going extreme is a hint, but four going extreme together is a setup.

Retail positioning

Aggregated long/short ratios from major retail brokers and prop firms. Updated hourly. Per-instrument, per-region. Historical thresholds calibrated for each instrument independently.

↳ Sourced from broker feeds
↳ 80+ instruments covered
↳ hourly cadence
Commitments of Traders

Weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders reports parsed and normalized. Commercial vs. non-commercial positioning across futures markets. Long-tail history (decades). The institutional reference point.

↳ CFTC + ESMA + JFSA
↳ Weekly release cadence
↳ 30+ year history
Options & flow

Options skew, put/call ratios, large-trade flow detection, dealer gamma positioning. For instruments with liquid options markets. Equities, FX majors, gold, oil, crypto. Indirect but powerful sentiment read.

↳ Options exchanges (CBOE et al)
↳ Skew + flow modeling
↳ Dealer positioning estimates
Social tone

Aggregated sentiment from X, Reddit (r/forex, r/wallstreetbets, r/cryptocurrency), trading Discords (consented), and YouTube comments. NLP-tuned to trading vernacular. Volume-weighted, bot-filtered.

↳ X · Reddit · public Discords
↳ Custom trading-NLP model
↳ Bot-filtered, volume-weighted

The strongest signal isn't extreme sentiment. It's sentiment vs. price.

Bullish sentiment with rising prices is just confirmation. Bullish sentiment with stalling prices is a warning. Bearish sentiment with falling prices is just panic. Bearish sentiment with stabilizing prices is a setup. Sentiment Compass tracks divergence between sentiment and price action on a per-instrument basis, and flags when the two stop agreeing.

When price stops obeying the crowd.

Most of the time, sentiment and price move together. The crowd buys, prices go up, the crowd buys more, prices keep going up. Divergence breaks the loop. When sentiment keeps climbing but price stops, the buyers are running out. When sentiment keeps falling but price stops, the sellers are. These are the inflection points worth trading.

  • Bullish-bearish divergence. Sentiment rising into a sideways or topping market
  • Bearish-bullish divergence. Sentiment falling into a basing or bottoming market
  • Cross-source divergence. Options dealers hedged one way, retail positioned the other
  • Cross-asset divergence. DXY bullish but gold sentiment also bullish (typically inverse)
  • Velocity divergence. Sentiment accelerating while price decelerates, or vice versa
  • Historical hit rates. Each divergence type comes with its empirical edge data
EUR/USD · 30D · PRICE vs SENTIMENTUPDATED 14:23 UTC
PRICE
SENTIMENT
Divergence active · 5 days Price has continued grinding higher while aggregate sentiment has flattened and turned. Retail positioning at 82% long is approaching a historical contrarian threshold. Five of the last six instances of this pattern resolved with a 1.5%+ mean reversion within 10 sessions.

What it does, specifically.

Per-instrument readings

Sentiment score for every major instrument (FX, indices, crypto, commodities). Calibrated historical thresholds per instrument. What's "extreme" for gold isn't "extreme" for EUR/USD. 80+ instruments at GA.

Composite scoring

Aggregate score across all five sources, with per-source contribution visible. See whether a reading is being driven by retail positioning, options flow, social tone, or a confluence. Single-source extremes weigh differently than multi-source.

Divergence alerts

Real-time flagging when price and sentiment stop tracking each other. Configurable thresholds. Historical hit rates on each divergence type. Alerts pushed to desktop, mobile, or webhook.

Time-series history

Every sentiment reading kept as a time series. Backtestable. Overlayable on any chart. Useful for understanding whether the current reading is normal, elevated, or genuinely extreme relative to the instrument's own history.

Strategy Lab callable

if at.sentiment("XAUUSD") > 0.85: fade(). Use sentiment readings as strategy preconditions. Build contrarian strategies that auto-fire at thresholds. Or trend strategies that require sentiment alignment before entering.

Watchlist filtering

Integrate with Market Scanner to filter your watchlist by sentiment criteria. "Show me instruments where retail is 80%+ long AND price has flattened." That query becomes a saved screener returning candidates in real time.

Three layers. In order.

01
Aggregate the five sources

Retail positioning, COT data, options flow, social tone, news flow. Each pulled on its native cadence. Some hourly, some weekly, some real-time. Normalized, instrument-mapped, bot-filtered, time-aligned.

02
Compute composite + thresholds

Weighted aggregation into a single 0–100 score per instrument. Per-instrument historical thresholds for "extreme". Calibrated to each instrument's own distribution, not a generic level. Divergence detection runs continuously.

03
Surface what's actionable

Compass dial for aggregate view. Per-instrument readings ranked by extremity. Live divergence alerts. Time-series charts overlayable on price. Strategy Lab SDK access. The full sentiment view, always one tab away.

Shipping in stages. Q3 2026.

Sentiment Compass rolls out by source. The data infrastructure is the hard part; each new source goes through a calibration period before it counts in the composite. Major FX and crypto first, then indices and commodities, then single names.

Q3 2026 · JulyStage 01
Closed beta · Retail + COT for FX majors

Closed beta to All-Access subscribers. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD. Retail positioning + CFTC COT data. Calibrated historical thresholds.

Q3 2026 · AugustStage 02
Public beta · Add options & social for FX + crypto + gold

Public beta. Add options flow and social tone for FX majors, BTC, ETH, gold. Divergence detection live. First Strategy Lab SDK access. 25+ instruments at this stage.

Q3 2026 · SeptemberStage 03
GA · 80+ instruments + news flow

General availability. Indices (SPX, NDX, DJI, DAX, FTSE, Nikkei). Commodities (oil, copper, silver). News-flow sentiment integrated. Single-stock coverage for top 100 US equities. 80+ instruments total.

Q4 2026Stage 04
Cross-asset + regime modeling

Cross-asset sentiment correlations. Regime conditioning (same extreme reading has different historical hit rates in different macro regimes). Backtesting integration with Strategy Lab. Custom alert webhooks.

Sentiment-aware everything.

↔ Strategy Lab
Sentiment-gated strategies

Build a strategy that only fires when sentiment hits an extreme. Or a trend follower that only enters when sentiment confirms. Or a contrarian that auto-fires at the 90th-percentile crowd reading. Programmable sentiment edge.

See Strategy Lab →
↔ Market Scanner
Sentiment as filter

Filter your watchlist by sentiment criteria: "retail 80%+ long AND price flat 5 days." Saved as a scanner, returning candidates in real time. The most powerful contrarian screener available to retail.

See Market Scanner →
↔ Trade Analytics
Does crowd-fading work for YOU?

Cross-reference your own trade outcomes with the sentiment reading at the time of entry. Did your fades work better when sentiment was extreme? Did your trend trades work when sentiment confirmed? Empirical answers on your own data.

See Trade Analytics →

Be in closed beta.

Closed beta opens in July with FX-majors retail + COT data. Beta access is free for the first 2,500 waitlist members. Production pricing aligns with other Arizet apps ($8 / 7d · $29 / 30d · $269 / 365d).

Closed beta. July 2026.

Join the waitlist and we'll send you beta access in July when Stage 01 opens. Free through public beta in August. Priority given to traders who actively use sentiment in their process.

  • First-access to closed beta in July 2026. FX majors retail + COT
  • Free access through public beta (Stage 02 / August)
  • Direct line to the build team for source / instrument requests
  • Founder badge on your profile. Issued once, never reissued
  • 50% off first year of paid pricing post-GA
Join the waitlist
1,419 / 2,500 beta spots claimed.
Quant teams interested in raw-data API access: contact us directly.

Stop guessing what the crowd is doing. Just look.

Five sources. Eighty instruments. Real-time. The collective psychology of the market, quantified.

Join the waitlist → See all apps
Q3 2026 · Closed beta July · Public beta August · GA September